pdf Decision making tools and methodology that support good decision making amongst many competing interests Popular


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Dave Snowden - Professor & Director of Centre for Applied Complexity, Bangor University, Wales

In any complex situation the nature of evidence is problematic.  With the benefit of hindsight what should have been done is often self-evident, but at the time the decision has to be made, competing hypotheses are all supported by evidence and resolution is problematic to say the least.  Hindsight rarely allows for foresight in these circumstances.

In reconciling competing interests and finding ways to create new trade offs, new commodities for negotiation and new discovery processes are key.  Prof. Snowden’s work in the Centre for Applied Complexity at Bangor University has focused on applying natural science to social systems, principally complex adaptive systems theory, cognitive science and aspects of anthropology.  That work has resulted in a body of methods and tools, including the award winning Cynefin framework, that create new approaches to distributed decision making and decision support.

This presentation will provide an overview of the theory and practice and will suggest new experimental approaches for whole of population engagement in real time decision support.  It will include recent experiments with the government of Singapore and others.  Creating human sensor networks that are motivated by the need for day to day monitoring needs but can be activated in the case of extraordinary need is one example of emerging practice in this field.